Decision Making Med Psych

• How people should make decisions
• Expected Utility theory (probability x utility)

• How people actually make decisions
• Prospect theory

• System I - intuition
• System II - reasoning

Liklihood of event evaluated by ease of which examples come to mind

Probability of diagnosis judged by similarity of the case to diagnostic category

Inaccurate initial estimate, not enough weight given to new info

Tend to confidently judge that they knew event would occur after it occured

Tendency to overestimate own performance, underestimate others'

Felling worse about adverse outcomes due to activity rather than due to inaction

Decisions evaluated more favorably if lead to positive outcomes

Framing of a choice can make difference to decision

Choosing a given treatment option more often when there are additional alternatives

Choosing to continue with treatment plan with questionable merit due to time and resources already invested

Retrospective evaluations depend on worst and last moments of discomfort

Probability of a hypothesis is a function of new evidence and previous knowledge

Systematic deviation from normatively derived solution

Study of human mental processes and role in thinking, feeling, behaving

Logical argument which has not deductively valid conclusion

Simple cognitive shortcuts

Basing opinions and actions on reason rather than on intuition/emotion