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Fixed Expenses
- Expenses assumed to be the same for each risk, regardless of amount of premium
- E.g., overhead costs associated with the home office
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Variable Expenses
- Expenses vary directly with premium (i.e., constant percentage of premium)
- E.g., premium taxes and commissions
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Name the three procedures to derive expense provision for ratemaking
- 1. All Variable Expense Method
- 2. Premium-based Projection Method
- 3. Exposure/Policy-based Projection Method
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All Variable Expense Method
- Does not differentiate between fixed and variable
- Expenses assumed to be a constant percentage of premium
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Relate historical expenses to either historical written or earned
- Use written if believe expense generally incurred at onset of policy
- Use earned if believe expense generally incurred throughout the policy
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Selection of expense provision
- Based on latest year or multi-year average
- Also use management input, prior expense loads, and judgment
- Expense load should reflect expectations in the future
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If non-recurring expense items during the historical period, the actuary should:
- Examine the materiality and nature of the expense to determine how/if should be incorporated
- May choose to spread out over several years or not include at all
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Potential Distortions of All Variable Expense method:
- Assumes all expenses vary directly with premium
- However, portion may be fixed
- Understates premium need for small premium risks
- Overstates premium for large premium risks
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Options for companies using the All Variable Expense method to deal with distortion
- Premium discount to reduce expense loadings for larger premium polices
- Expense constants to handle expenses such as policy issuance and auditing
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Compare All Variable Expense Method to Premium-Based Projection Method
Similarity: Premium-Based assumes expense ratios during projection period will be same as historical
Enhanced: Prem-Based calculates fixed and variable expense ratios separately
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What are the steps in the Premium-Based Projection Method?
1. Determine percentage of premium attributable to expenses for each of the expense categories
- 2. Divide ratio into fixed and variable ratios:
- Ideally split based on detailed company data;
- Without needed data, make reasonable assumptions
3. Sum expense ratios across categories to determine fixed and variable provisions
Note: this gives you the fixed expense ratio, which is a ratio to premium - this is used with the loss ratio approach (Ch. 8)
If using the pure premium approach, convert to fixed expense per exposure: Fixed per Exposure = Fixed Expense Ratio * Projected Average Premium
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Potential Distortions of premium based projection
1. Rate changes can impact the historical expense ratios and lead to an excessive or inadequate overall rate indication
2. Significant premium trend between the historical experience period and the projected period can lead to an excessive or inadequate overall rate indication
3. Can create inequitable rates for regional or nationwide carriers because it uses countrywide expense ratios and applies them to state projected premiums to determine the expected fixed expenses
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What are the steps in the Exposure/Policy-Based Projection Method?
- 1. Divide expenses into fixed and variable amounts
- 2. Divide fixed expenses by corresponding exposures (written/earned, countrywide/state)
- 3. Divide variable expenses by corresponding premium
Note: this gives you the fixed expense per exposure - this is used with the pure premium approach
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Selecting projected average expense per exposure in the Exposure/Policy-Based Projection Method
- Similar expense ratios over several years implies expenses and exposures are increasing or decreasing proportionately
- Must consider impact of economies of scale given expected growth
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Other Considerations / Future Enhancements in the Exposure/Policy-Based Projection Method
- 1. The actuary splits expenses into fixed and variable
- 2. Allocates countrywide fixed expenses to each state based on exposures
- 3. Some expenses considered fixed vary by other characteristics
- 4. Existence of economies of scale in a changing book
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Trending Expenses
- Variable ExpensesNo trend needed
- Constant % of premium
- Premium-based Projection Method
- If average expenses and average premium changing at same rate: Need no trending
- If assume average fixed expenses changing at different rate than average premium: Trend fixed expense ratio
- Exposure-based Projection Method
- If inflation sensitive exposure base used: No trending necessary if assume expenses & exposure base changing at same rate
- If non-inflation sensitive base or policy counts: Trending necessary b/c ave FE expected to change over time
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What are two ways to consider Reinsurance Costs in ratemaking analysis
Reduce projected losses for reinsurance recoveries and premiums for cost of reinsurance
Net cost of non-proportional reinsurance may be included as an expense item: i.e., cost of reinsurance minus expected recoveries
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Total Profit
Investment Income + UW Profit
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Two major sources of investment income
- Investment income on capital
- Capital belongs to owners of the company
- Substantial disagreement whether this investment income should be included in ratemaking
- Investment income earned on policyholder-supplied funds
- Two types - unearned premium reserves and loss reserves
- Longer the tail of the line, the longer opportunity for investment
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Underwriting Profit
Sum of profits generated from insurance policies
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Variable Permissible Loss Ratio
- VPLR = 1.0 - Variable Expense % - Target Profit % = 1.0- V - Q
- Portion of each dollar of premium to be spent on Projected Loss, LAE & Fixed Expense
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Total Permissible Loss Ratio
- PLR = 1.0 - Total Expense % - Target Profit % = 1.0 - F -V - Q
- Portion of each dollar of premium to be spent on Projected Loss & LAE
- If all expenses treated as variable, VPLR = PLR
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