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Define Exposure
Basic unit that measures a policy's exposure to loss
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What criteria should a good exposure base meet?
- 1. Directly proportional to expected loss
- 2. Practical
- 3. Should consider any preexisting exposure base established within the industry
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Describe criteria for Exposure Bases: Proportional to Expected Loss
- Factor with most direct relationship to losses should be selected as exposure base
- 1. Also makes exposure base more easily understood by the insured
- 2. Should be responsive to changes in exposure to risk
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Describe criteria for Exposure Bases: Practical
- Selected base should be well-defined, objective, and relatively easy and inexpensive to obtain and verify
- Will be consistently measured
Note: It precludes policyholders, producers, and UWs from manipulating exposures (MORAL HAZARD - intentional dishonesty to benefit themselves)
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Describe criteria for Exposure Bases: Historical Precedence
- Should carefully consider change in an exposure base prior to implementing
- * Can lead to large premium swings
- * Requires a change in rating algorithm
- * May need data adjustments for future ratemaking analysis
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Exposures for Large Commercial Risks
- 1. Composite Rating
- 2. Loss-Rated Composite Rating
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Describe Composite Rating
Used for some large commercial risks when difficult to track exposure throughout period
- Premium calculated normally, then divided by proxy
- *Audited to determine final premium on expiration
- *charged prem = # of expected/final proxy units * rate per proxy
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Describe Loss-Rated Composite Rating
Premium is calculated directly from historical losses
Implicit exposure base is risk itself with expected loss = rate
Premium = Charged losses + expense load
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What are the two methods of Aggregation of Exposures?
- 1. Calendar Year Aggregation and Accident Year Aggregation
- All exposures on policies within calendar period
- Regardless of policy effective date
- Represented graphically by squares
- **CY ~= AY except for LOB with audits
- 2. Policy Year Aggregation
- All exposures on policies with effective dates during the year
- Represented graphically by parallelograms
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What are Written Exposures
Total exposures arising from policies written during a specific time period
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What are Earned Exposures
Portion of the written exposures for which coverage has been provided at a certain time
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What are Unearned Exposures
- Portion of written exposures for which coverage has not been provided
- Amount of exposure company has not yet earned
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What are Inforce Exposures
Number of insured units that are exposed to a claim as of agiven date
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What is the common assumption when calculating blocks of exposures?
- Assume policies written at mid-point of period (24ths method)
- Good approximation if policies written uniformly during each time period
Less likely uniform writings assumption holds for longer time frames
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Describe Exposure Trend
- Some lines of business use exposures which are affected by time-related influences
- E.g., payroll and sales revenue are affected by inflation
- May need to measure the exposure trend over time to project exposures at future levels
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Selected trends for Exposure Trend can use:
- Internal insurance company data (e.g., WC payroll data)
- Industry indices (e.g., average wage index)
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