TD L11

  1. risk
    • potential hazards/dangers
    • risk vs risk benefit
  2. risk assessment
    academic/intellectual field of identifying, characterising, and quantifying risk
  3. risk perception
    • intuitive risk judgements
    • affected by emotion
  4. risk attitudes
    • preferences that influence willingness to take risks
    • are we risk averse or risk seeking? differs
  5. domain specificity of risk
    not all risks are created equal. personal risk tolerande is average across many different situations 

    e.g. don't like to gamble but sky dive
  6. DoSpeRT Scale
    • Domain Specific Risk Taking Scale (via factor analysis, domains):
    • financial risk (investment, gambling)
    • health & safety risk
    • social risk
    • ethical risk
    • recreational risk
  7. risk perception vs risk taking
    • risk perception: how risky is this 
    • risk taking: how likely would i take t
  8. dread risk
    uncontrollable, catastophic, global, fatal, involuntary, hard to reduce, increasing 

    • involuntary vs voluntary,
    • fatal vs survivable
    • uncontrollable vs controllable
    • global vs local
  9. unknown risk
    note known to P, not known to science, not observable, has delayed effects new

    • technical vs easy to understand
    • not understood vs understood by science
    • new vs familiar
    • invisible vs observable
    • fast progressing vs gradual
  10. factor analysis
    • how to know which risk relates to dread and which relates to unknown 
    • factor = construct = abstract concept
  11. why is factor analysis useful
    • assess constructs that are . hard to measure directly 
    • reduce redundancy in surveys
    • identify measures that are orthogonal 
    • create perceptual maps of constructs
  12. risk perception is relative
    • based on perception
    • our relative ranking of risks is more consistent than our numerical estimates of risk
  13. finite pool of worry
    • limited mental resources, limited capacity for worry 
    • my pool is bigger than yours but neither is infinite
  14. System 1 (emotional) in calculating risk
    affect is more likely to lead to action (feeling more motivating than number)
  15. risk as feelings implication
    • affect heuristic
    • optimism bias
    • probability neglect
    • insensitivity to numbers
  16. affect heuristic
    • we perceieve risk to be negatively correlated with benefits
    • we rate ration of benefits to risk higher for activities we like/outcomes we want
    • fear/anger/dread can influence judgement 
    • (anger makes risk seem lower)
  17. optimism bias
    we act like rare, good events are more likely to occur than (equally) rare, bad events
  18. probability neglect
    • all or nothing mentality 
    • focus is on bad outcome itself, and they are inattentive to the fact that it is unlikely to occur 
    • we like/hate outcome, it doesn't matter the probability
  19. insensitivity to numbers
    feeling confident about our assessment of an outcome in risky choice can influence our judgement about the outcome
Card Set
TD L11
thinking and decision making