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risk
- potential hazards/dangers
- risk vs risk benefit
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risk assessment
academic/intellectual field of identifying, characterising, and quantifying risk
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risk perception
- intuitive risk judgements
- affected by emotion
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risk attitudes
- preferences that influence willingness to take risks
- are we risk averse or risk seeking? differs
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domain specificity of risk
not all risks are created equal. personal risk tolerande is average across many different situations
e.g. don't like to gamble but sky dive
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DoSpeRT Scale
- Domain Specific Risk Taking Scale (via factor analysis, domains):
- financial risk (investment, gambling)
- health & safety risk
- social risk
- ethical risk
- recreational risk
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risk perception vs risk taking
- risk perception: how risky is this
- risk taking: how likely would i take t
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dread risk
uncontrollable, catastophic, global, fatal, involuntary, hard to reduce, increasing
- involuntary vs voluntary,
- fatal vs survivable
- uncontrollable vs controllable
- global vs local
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unknown risk
note known to P, not known to science, not observable, has delayed effects new
- technical vs easy to understand
- not understood vs understood by science
- new vs familiar
- invisible vs observable
- fast progressing vs gradual
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factor analysis
- how to know which risk relates to dread and which relates to unknown
- factor = construct = abstract concept
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why is factor analysis useful
- assess constructs that are . hard to measure directly
- reduce redundancy in surveys
- identify measures that are orthogonal
- create perceptual maps of constructs
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risk perception is relative
- based on perception
- our relative ranking of risks is more consistent than our numerical estimates of risk
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finite pool of worry
- limited mental resources, limited capacity for worry
- my pool is bigger than yours but neither is infinite
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System 1 (emotional) in calculating risk
affect is more likely to lead to action (feeling more motivating than number)
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risk as feelings implication
- affect heuristic
- optimism bias
- probability neglect
- insensitivity to numbers
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affect heuristic
- we perceieve risk to be negatively correlated with benefits
- we rate ration of benefits to risk higher for activities we like/outcomes we want
- fear/anger/dread can influence judgement
- (anger makes risk seem lower)
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optimism bias
we act like rare, good events are more likely to occur than (equally) rare, bad events
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probability neglect
- all or nothing mentality
- focus is on bad outcome itself, and they are inattentive to the fact that it is unlikely to occur
- we like/hate outcome, it doesn't matter the probability
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insensitivity to numbers
feeling confident about our assessment of an outcome in risky choice can influence our judgement about the outcome
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