TD L7

• when a sample size increases, it becomes more representative of population 
• N>30

the mistaken belief that small number represents the population or that small samples should resemble one another

• representative - descriptive, similarity rather than likelyhood
• bayes - normative, base rate and additional relevant data to judge likelihood

Availability Heuristic: more easier remembered = judged as occurring more frequently

• ease of considering (2 reasons vs 10 reasons why) 
• vividness (imagine win vs imagine loss/guacamole)
• recency
• emotional content
• priming

• if you can predict you'll be right x% and you are correct x% of the time 
• e.g correct 70% of the time you said 70%

• if you can predict you'll be right x% and you are correct >x% of the time
• highest when accuracy is around chance levels
• decreases as accuracy increases

attention and motivation

• selective information search: difficult to detect missing features
• selective information encoding: excuses and rationalizations
• selective memory search: confirmation-bias

• desire to appear competent and confident t others and oneself
• confidence and optimism help get the job done

illusory superiority among the lower performers...but underconfidence among the very adept

Competent people attribute their achievements to luck rather than to their own skill or hard work

• we judge ourselves relative to our relevant peer group
• affects imposter syndrome a