1. law of large numbers
    • when a sample size increases, it becomes more representative of population 
    • N>30
  2. law of small numbers
    the mistaken belief that small number represents the population or that small samples should resemble one another
  3. Bayes vs Representative Heuristic
    • representative - descriptive, similarity rather than likelyhood
    • bayes - normative, base rate and additional relevant data to judge likelihood
  4. Judging Frequency
    Availability Heuristic: more easier remembered = judged as occurring more frequently
  5. Factors that affect Availability
    • ease of considering (2 reasons vs 10 reasons why) 
    • vividness (imagine win vs imagine loss/guacamole)
    • recency
    • emotional content
    • priming
  6. Well Calibrated
    • if you can predict you'll be right x% and you are correct x% of the time 
    • e.g correct 70% of the time you said 70%
  7. Overconfidence
    • if you can predict you'll be right x% and you are correct >x% of the time
    • highest when accuracy is around chance levels
    • decreases as accuracy increases
  8. reasons for overconfidence
    attention and motivation
  9. Attentional Error
    • selective information search: difficult to detect missing features
    • selective information encoding: excuses and rationalizations
    • selective memory search: confirmation-bias
  10. Motivational Error
    • desire to appear competent and confident t others and oneself
    • confidence and optimism help get the job done
  11. Dunning Kruger Effect
    illusory superiority among the lower performers...but underconfidence among the very adept
  12. Imposter Syndrome
    Competent people attribute their achievements to luck rather than to their own skill or hard work
  13. social comparison theory:
    • we judge ourselves relative to our relevant peer group
    • affects imposter syndrome a
Card Set
thinking and decision making