Home
Flashcards
Preview
TD L7
Home
Get App
Take Quiz
Create
Automatically remove your image background. Try it now!
https://remove-image-background.com
law
of large numbers
when a sample size increases, it becomes more representative of
population
N>30
law
of small numbers
the mistaken belief that small number represents the population or that small samples should resemble one another
Bayes vs Representative Heuristic
representative - descriptive, similarity rather than
likelyhood
bayes
- normative,
base
rate and additional relevant data to judge likelihood
Judging Frequency
Availability Heuristic: more easier remembered = judged as occurring more frequently
Factors that affect Availability
ease of considering (2 reasons vs 10 reasons why)
vividness (imagine win vs imagine loss/guacamole)
recency
emotional content
priming
Well Calibrated
if you can predict you'll be right x% and you are correct x% of the time
e.g correct 70% of the time you said 70%
Overconfidence
if you can predict you'll be right x% and you are correct >x% of the time
highest when accuracy is around chance levels
decreases as accuracy increases
reasons for overconfidence
attention and motivation
Attentional Error
selective information search
: difficult to detect missing features
selective information encoding
: excuses and rationalizations
selective memory search
: confirmation-bias
Motivational Error
desire
to appear competent and confident t others and oneself
confidence and optimism help get the job done
Dunning Kruger Effect
illusory superiority among the lower performers...but underconfidence among the very adept
Imposter Syndrome
Competent people attribute their achievements to luck rather than to their own skill or hard work
social comparison theory:
we judge ourselves relative to our relevant peer group
affects imposter syndrome a
Automatically remove your image background. Try it now!
https://remove-image-background.com
Author
misol
ID
345476
Card Set
TD L7
Description
thinking and decision making
Updated
2019-02-22T21:43:28Z
Show Answers
Home
Flashcards
Preview