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Key Principles of Risk Transfer
- Various approaches to assess risk transfer.
- prof judgment required for assessment.
- e.g. select historical data, set parameters for models
- reinsurance contract and all other commitments (verbal or written) between parties should be considered
- Assessment at inception and any time there is a change in contract provisions
- e.g. rates / coverage levels that is not a linear change in QS
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Qualitative Assessment - Reasonably self-evident risk transfer
- When obvious that contract protects cedant from future adverse events
- 'if the event happened is protection afforded' and not on how probable the event or how much risk is transferred
- requires that transactions be 1) done at arms length, and 2) no risk limiting clauses
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Potential limiting features of Risk Transfer
- Terms Set in Advance
- Profit sharing
- Adjustable reinsurance premiums / commissions
- Pre-set limits to timing of payments
- Expected duration of contract
- High front-end reinsurance commissions
- Counterparties
- Experience Based Renewals
- Future terms based on past experience
- Forced renewals
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Profit sharing - Problems
- return pre-agreed % of profits to ceding (QS)
- problem:
- expectation of large profit sharing; there shouldn't be profit expected for reinsurer -> not enough risk transfer to reinsurer
- absence of loss carryforward (used to determine amount of refund)
- negative exprience refund (makes reinsurer whole)
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Adjustability of reinsurance premiums / commissions - Problems
- contract limits/adjusts amounts payable by/to reinsurer
- problem:
- adjustable features counter reinsurer loss
- QS: final commission to ceding based on experience
- XOL: adjustable reinsurance premium rate (swing rate)
- QS: Limits or caps on LRs
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Pre-set limits to timing of payments - Problems
- some with premium schedules limit timing risk
- some only to facilitate admin. but review required
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Expected duration of contract - Problems
- early capture thru commutation may limit timing risk
- may not limit, e.g. ON auto XOL AB claims commuted back after a few years. need to review
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High front-end reinsurance commissions - Problems
- some elements of financing
- doesn't necessarily limit, e.g. to offset acquisition costs, when majority of the risk is ceded.
- limit if early lapses higher than expected. Should review.
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Counterparties - Problems
Contracts that cede back to cedant: need to ensure reserves and required capital is not being arbitraged away.
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Future terms based on past experience - Problems
- When annually renewable, not an issue.
- limit if reinsurance rates guaranteed to recover portion of past losses (unless ceding can take business elsewhere)
- e.g. multi-year contracts where renewal is not at cedant’s option (premium increase if loss in a prior year -> guarantee payback)
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Forced renewals - Problems
- limit if contract in deficit and force cedant to renew contract until losses eliminated
- may not if future contracts on market term. need to review
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Side Agreements - Problems
- commitments not in reinsurance contract.
- limit if e.g. require ceding to enter into future contracts with reinsurer based on profitability of current contract
- may not if future contracts on market terms
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Mirroring - Problems
- mirroring: ceded liablity estimation equal.
- difficult in reality (dif data -> dif assumptions)
- QS:
- often reinsurers do not have access to data and rely on cedant (IBNR)
- reinsurer assumptions based on agg of treaties (!=sum of individual treaties)
- XOL:
- Reinsurer not participating on all layers
- Cedant's IBNR based on small amount of excess info
- Reinsurer combine all treaties to produce more credible data
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Bifurcation - Problems
- Separate contracts into insurance portion vs. not (deposit accounting)
- Reinsurance contracts not intended to be bifurcated
- only valid in entirety
- individual components may not be issued on their own
- e.g. A cedes to B and received upfront 150% commission for 1st year. for B to profit, need to charge A more premium following years.
- Bifurcation -> recovery of upfront commission separate from pure insurance risk, and treated as a loan (deposit accounting)
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Reinsurance Counterparty Risk - Problems
Reinsurer unable to pay claims or pay in full. Degree of MfAD depends on uncertainty of recovery: - Rating from rating agencies
- History of dispute on claims;
- Whether reinsurer is in runoff;
- Expertise of reinsurer;
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