Thesis Defense (10. Results 5)

  1. Hypothesis test results for each team
    Lastly, all 32 teams were individually tested for the representativeness heuristic, and all 32 have a higher parameter estimate for the new infomration when compared to the original information.

    Every p-value for the new information is 0.000, while the estimates for the original information had statistical significance at the 0.1 level for 12 teams. However, 15 teams had p-values of 0.3 or greater for original information. While this means that those parameter estimates are not considered to be statistically significant, it does indicate that the correlation for those teams could be due to randomness, which could mean they are not taking the original information into account at all.

    Only five teams have a p-value of 0.015 or less for the original information.

  2. Top Teams Table
    And those five teams are five of the most successful teams during the 12-year span covered in this dataset: Saints, Steelers, Giants, Patriots, and Packers.

    The Steelers, Giants, and Patriots are the only three teams to win multiple Super Bowls during this 12-year span. The Saints and Packers also won Super Bowls during this time, meaning that these five teams accounted for nine of the 12 Super Bowls covered in the time frame of this dataset.

    The ranking over to the left indicates where these teams rank in terms of the smallest difference between the estimates for the new and original information. So the Saints have the smallest difference (0.1768), while on the other end of the spectrum...

  3. Bottom Teams Table
    … the New York Jets have the largest difference (1.6266) indicating that they were over-weighting new information the most. The bottom five teams are the Jets, Cardinals, Vikings, Bears, and Texans. They only made the playoffs an average of 3.2 times, with none more than four. For perspective, on average, each team made the playoffs 4.5 times.

  4. Compare Table
    And the to provide further perspective, here are the totals and averages for the top teams shown in the first table and the bottom five teams shown in the second table.

    Nine Super Bowls compared to zero, more than twice as many playoff appearances, three times as many playoff wins, and nearly 30 more regular season wins PER TEAM.

  5. Win percentage by optimal decision percentage (A)
    To further illustrate the difference between the successful and unsuccessful teams, this graph shows teams win percentage across the percentage of optimal decisions they made on fourth down in a game. It should be noted that on average teams faced more than seven fourth downs per game (7.42) with a maximum of 16 in a single game.

    As you can see, teams that chose the optimal decision more frequently, won more frequently. In games where a team chose the optimal decision on fourth down 50% of the time, won the game approximately 60% of the time.

  6. Win percentage by optimal decision percentage (B)
    In games where a team made the optimal decision on more than half of their fourth downs, they won the game approximately two-thirds of the time (67.2%). All we're talking about at this point is teams simply making the optimal decision more often than not, and they won more than two-thirds of the games in which that happened.

    Taking it a step further, teams that made the optimal decision between 25 and 50 percent of the time still won more often than not (51.5%). And let me emphasize that this is between 25 and 50 percent, not 25 percent or more.

Card Set
Thesis Defense (10. Results 5)