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Why is internal migration hugely important?
- Because it is available to all people
- Increasingly more people are migrating and i is becoming a huge issue globally
What is development - according to migration
To develop is essentially people moving out of the countryside into the city to more industrial based industries
What is happening in terms of migration patterns?
More people are moving internationally
Definition of refugee
Fleeing armed conflict or persecution - seeking refuge
Definition of asylum seeker
Says he or she is a refugee - refugee and waiting
What protects refugees in international law?
Defined and protected in international law by the 1951 Refugee Convention
When was the Refugee Convention?
What have most countries agreed in terms of refugees?
Countries which are signatories of the 1951 Refugee Convention have agreed that they should not be expelled or returned (which is the majority of the countries)
What do asylum seekers claim?
They have dangerous circumstances but this has not been validated by a national authority - waiting approval
What is the relationship between an asylum seeker and a refugee?
An asylum seeker will be a refugee when their claim has been authorised and validated
Who decides whether someone is a refugee or a migrant?
National governments of the potential host country make that change
What are the concepts and definitions surrounding asylum seekers and refugees?
- Refugee: Someone who is fleeing armed conflict or persecution - seeking refuge
- Too dangerous physically to return home and they need sanctuary
- Defined and protected in international law_ the 1951 Refugee Convention
- Countries which are signatories (which is most countries) have agreed that they should not be expelled or returned
- Should not be expelled or returned to situations where life and freedom would be under threat - international community have a warrantee to live in other places, other than their country, for their personal safety
- Asylum seeker - says he or she is a refugee - refugee and waiting
- Claim they have dangeous circumstances - but this hasn't been validated by a national level
- Asylum seekers will be refugess when they have this validate - to see the genuine cases
- National countries of the potential host country that makes that change
- If they are found not to be refugees, they can be sent back home
What happens when an asylum seeker is denied refuge?
If they are found not to be refugees, they can be sent back home
How many refugees and asylum seekers were there at the end of 2014?
- 59.5 million (UNHCR Source)
- (probably more now)
What percentage of the world population is made up of refugees/asylum seekers?
Just under 1% (UNHCR)
How many refugees were there in 2014?
19.5 million refugees (UNHCR)
How many refugees were there in 2013?
16.7 million - UNHCR
How many people were displaced within their own country in 2014?
38.2 million were displaced inside their own countries (UNHCR)
How many people were displaced within their own country in 2013?
- 33.3 million in 2013 compared to 38.2 million in 2014
Why might people be displaced within their own countries?
Civil Wars to camps
How many people were awaiting the outcome of claims for asylum in 2014?
- 1.8 million people were awaiting the outcome of claims for asylum in 2014
How many people were awaiting the outcome of claims for asylum in 2013?
- 1.2 million people in 2013 compared to 1.8 million in 2014
How many people were newly displaced between 2013 and 2014?
- 13.9 million people
Where were most of the people who were newly displaced from?
- Syria and the Middle East
What is different between migrants and refugees?
Migrants choose to move to improve their life
Why might people migrate?
Mainly finding work, education, family reunion
What other factor do you have to consider when defining a migrant?
In terms of time - you are not a migrant if you go on holiday for a couple of weeks etc
How long do migrants have to stay in a country to be seen as a migrant?
- Have to stay for a "significant time"
- Has been or intends to be in the host country for a year
Temporary migrants - time scale
Notions of less than a year for temporary migrants for schemes e.g. seasonal work
International migration - factor
Have to be crossing an international border
Why in theory is migration a two way decision?
- People either make a decision to move, or not to move. This decision might be a result of lots of different impacts that affect that one decision
- Decide to move
- Decide where to move to
Example of migration decision
It might be dangerous in Syria but it might be the appeal of the higher wages in Germany which push them to make that decision
What might influence where people migrate to?
- Sometimes next country for practicality
- Higher wages and income
- Better health care
- More jobs
- More political freedom
- Depends on why people are migrating in the first place
Why do we have to categorise migrants?
- We have to categorise people with different characteristics - people take decisions and this typically reflects a mixture of policies
- We have to observe how people behave and how to explain it
Why is it difficult to categorise migrants and refugees?
Each case is very different it is hard to separate classes when a lot of the time they overlap
Why is migration completely normal?
Completely normal to want to live elsewhere to improve the quality of your life or for new opportunities
How does university link to migration?
University is the conscious decision to move elsewhere because we feel it was better than the alternatives of staying at home
How many more internal migrants are there than international migrants?
4x more internal migrants than international migrants
Why is internal migration the stronger force?
It is more covenient and cheaper and it therefore open to more people, including the poor
What is a very strong part of migration?
Industrialisation and the movement from rural to urban areas - almost the definition of development
How many internal migrants are there in China?
275 million internal migrants in China
When did the huge blossom in industry in China occur?
Over the last 40 years
When was the UK internal migration high because of industrialisation?
In the 18th and 19th centuries
Who is the main sector of people who migrate?
Why are younger adults more likely to migrate?
- Healthier than average
- Willing to take risks
- Fit in better
- New opportunities and nothing to lose
Why is migration a risk?
- You are away from all the social networks you've known
- No secure job or income
How many people moved from Ireland after the Irish Potato famines?
1/3 of Ireland moved, including to places in the UK and USA in the 19th century
When has migration been increasing since?
Since the 1990s
What was the migration like after WW2?
People moved very extensively due to the disruption but international migration seems to have calmed down
What is the pattern of international migration like?
International migration has periods when it is very strong and periods when it is less strong
Why has migration increased since the 1990s?
- Not completely sure but certainly declining costs in international transport, people have more information, more contact through social media
- Formal media have much more information what life is like somewhere else
- This all essentially reducing the risks
What does knowing more information about migrating do?
It essentially reduces the risks
How does poverty play a part in migration?
- In part it is driven by poverty
- But it is not the very poorest who migrate
- Mormally it is not accessible to the poorest
Is migration an individual or family decision?
- Reasonable economic evidence suggests that migration is a family decision
- Family decision that the oldest child can earn money and send some back
- Less of a risk if some of the income from the family farms and some from migration - more stable source of income if something was to happen to farming or industry
How can migration risks be reduced?
- If not all the family migrates - some rely on agriculture and some rely on industry
- Still have money behind them as a backup
- Find out more information via social media
Income risk - more info
People are mitigating their income risk - as well as trying to earn more incomes
Why is it very difficult to work out the effects of migration?
- Selection effects complicate research greatly - very difficult to work out what the effects of migration are
- Can observe that migrants are different from other people
- Whether that special people who migrate or ordinary people who migrate which makes them special
Differences between migrants and non migrants?
Are the differences due to migration or due to being different people who decide to migrate
Why are migration policies hard?
- Have to find the cause of migration
- People or migration which causes "special" cases
- Changes in response
- Due to migration or what stimulated migration
How many international migrants are there in the world?
Over 200 million international migrants (probably more than this now)
What % of the worlds population are international migrants?
Slightly over 3% of the worlds population
How many remittances are there in the world?
- Remittances are over $500 billion - developed to developing countries each year
- Largest source of foreign exchange for many developing countries - bigger than a lot of export costs
- Remittances exceed foreign aid in many countries - serious amount of the economy
Where do economic migrants move to?
Economic migrants move from where productivity is lower to where it is higher - productivity is what determines your income
Productivity - more info - migration
Migration is substantially resulted of how productive they can be in different areas - not wholly but certainly substantially
Why might people migrate to a particular area - location specific factors:
- Different locations have different resources
- Physical capital
- Knowledge and technology
- Social and institutional capital
- Demographic imbalances
Why might people migrate to a particular area - resources more info
Resources - minerals, agriculture - South Africa where people are moving to mining communities
Why might people migrate to a particular area - physical capital - more info
Better buildings, roads, equipment - china
Why might people migrate to a particular area - Knowledge and technology - more info
Migration into Europe and North America - those communities with implicit and explicit technology - better organising and doing things
Why might people migrate to a particular area - Social and institutional capital - more info
Life is nicer - can be more productive - developing countries spend a lot of their time trying to arrange for things to be done which things in developed countries take completely for granted - therefore we can spend more time producing stuff and boosting income
Why might people migrate to a particular area - demographic imbalances - more info
- Fertility rates, age distribution - stage in development in the world - differences in age structure - possibly the widest its ever been
- Ageing structures like Japan and young structures like India
Why is migration costly?
- Costs of migration have to be funded
- You can only migrate if you have a cushion of money to fall back on because its so risky - migrating costs, legal papers, the cost of travelling, supporting yourself until you are settled, finding a job, somewhere to live - all require money
Examples of cost in migration
- Migrating costs
- Legal papers
- The cost of travelling
- Supporting yourself
- Finding a job
Figures of GDP per head and migration patterns
We reckon that migration continues to grow with income until you get to around $5000-$7000 where it remains fairly stable or grows at a slower rate
How does migration link to income - more info
- Migration is why the relatively well off migrate - not the very poorest
- We do something to help you get richer (e.g. if you want to get to london and you have the skills but dont have the funds, if you get richer, you might be able to migrate)
- Notion especially in politics in migration - make countries of origin richer so that people dont feel the need to migrate to the West - is in fact completely wrong
- As average income grows in poorer countries, migration continues because the set of people who can afford to migrate also increases
What is the fundamental myth in migration in terms of wealth and migration?
- Notion especially in politics in migration - that if you make the countries of origin richer, people wont feel the need to migrate to the west
- As the average income for a country grows, it increases the set of people who can afford to migrate
What is migration a good....?
Equilibrator - it moves people from low to higher productivity
What were the migration changes like between 1870 and 1910?
There was a lot of migration between the old world and the new world
What was America like in migration terms between 1870 and 1910?
In America, there was quite a lot of resources, pretty fertile land and people were extremely productive because there was more than enough resources to exploit compared to the number of people - low population
What was Europe like between 1870 and 1910?
- Europes land had been used for hundreds of years and the land wasnt very fertile
- Plus there was a lot of people for the resources to be shared between
What countries did people migrate from to the New World between 1870 and 1910?
Europe but particularly from Norway and Italy
How did the Labour force change between 1870 and 1910 in various countries?
- Argentina - +86%
- USA - +24%
- Italy - -39%
- New World Average - +40%
- Old World Average - -13%
How did the Labour force change between 1870 and 1910 in Argentina?
Grew by 86%
How did the Labour force change between 1870 and 1910 in USA?
Grew by 24%
How did the Labour force change between 1870 and 1910 in Italy?
Declined by 39%
How did the Labour force change between 1870 and 1910 in New World?
grew by 40%
How did the Labour force change between 1870 and 1910 in Old World?
Declined by 13%
How were the wages affected by the migration between 1870 and 1910?
- The wages feel in the New World because the land was being fully exploited and the resources were being shared out between more people
- The wages in the Old World increased because the resources were not as strained compared to the population size
Figures - Real wage increase/decrease between 1870 and 1910?
- New World - -12%
- Old World - +9%
Figures - Real wage increase/decrease between 1870 and 1910 in the New World?
Figures - Real wage increase/decrease between 1870 and 1910 in the Old World?
Source for the data from 1870-1910?
Taylor and Williamson, 1997
Income pattern in the US - 1960 and 2000
In the US, there were lots of different growth rates in population but they have a low range of growth in income per head - average income per head is growing around the same level everywhere in the US
Income pattern in developing countries - 1960-2000
- Developing countries show the same growth in population - around 2%, yet there growth in income per head is very varied
- E.g. South Korea and Singapore have got a good income
- Zambia has not made good progress
What is the increase in population in developing countries?
1960-2000 Info between US and developing countries - point
- Internal migration is a lot easier - especially for the same income although it might not be a huge incentive
- People in poor countries cannot move to other countries if they are from the very poor - would not work between developing countries
Value of migration to migrants and their home communities
- Migrate internationally - lower to higher wages
- Higher wages and opportunities abroad - one of the ways to get rich and it far outstrips getting a degree and staying at home
- Better opportunities for their children - it may be hard for them but better for the family at home
Do remittances help alleviate poverty?
- Maybe, maybe not.
- Typically those who get the remittances depends on who migrated in the first place - the very poorest dont generally migrate and therefore remittances dont go back to the very poorest countries
- It isnt necessarily the people at the bottom
What about the communities that migrants leave behind?
Income flows back to these communities through remittances
What are non-pecuniary remittances?
- Tracing the effect of ideas going back to the origin countries - technology and knowledge
- Transmit ideas
How can migration networks be important?
- Networks improve trade links and reduce costs for future migrants - having contact in another country can stimulate trade - when 2 countries have strong migration links, generally they have strong trade links
- Is it trade first or the migration?
- Know the markets you are exporting and importing to - home communities
- Speak the language and know the laws
- Migration is cheaper and less risky and more likely to occur who have networks in the host country they are moving to - migrants clustered in the same sort of areas - geographical origin and religion
- Cities - China towns - Italian quarters - reflection that if you are from a country, it is much easier to move where there are other people from the same country or people you may know who have the same links
- Further migration is cheaper and more likely - positive feedback loop and accumulates a bit
What are the contrasting minimum wages for clothes labour in the world?
- Myanmar - $60 a month
- Hong Kong and South Korea - $1000 a month
- Despite having the same skills, dispersion is huge
Income per natural theory
- Normally, development is measured per head of a country (average income divided by the number of people in that country)
- As if space matters - how much income is generated in this geographical area
- How about if you were interested in the people e.g. Jamaicans instead of Jamaica, no matter where they are living
Who came up with the Income per natural theory?
Clemens and Pritchett - 2008
Income per natural statistics
- Income in Jamaica - 3,600
- Income of Jamaicans - 6,500
- 235 million live in countries with a differential of larger than 20%
How many people live in countries with a differential larger than 20% in the income per natural theory?
235 million people
Why is income per natural important?
You need to count the welfare of the migrants - just because they have the idea to move somewhere else, it doesnt mean you should just discount them
When has the remittances been increasing from?
From 9/11 - not necessarily that remittances have increased, but they have been increasing measured more accurately
Why are governments being more careful in measuring remittances?
Governments and international organisations are much more careful about money laundering and they have to flow through official channels, rather than unofficial channels
Why isnt remittance increase the full story?
- Better measured now
- Migration has increased though
- Wages are higher
- Mixture of all 3 aspects
Do remittances boost incomes?
Reservation to make that statement
What is the relationship between remittances and natural disasters?
Remittances peak during a natural disaster - insurance focused and smoothing of income
Is expenditure of remittances unproductive on food and housing?
- if you think about a poor country who chooses to eat better foods, this is just as legitimate to use it as money
- E.g. spending it on weddings may be seen as a waste but it is building social capital within the community - neighbour you can rely on
Expectation to spend remittances on investment
Can spend it on other aspects such as weddings, food, assets, education, working less hours or simply saving it
Challenge of testing remittance effects
- Just because remittances and investment correlate - it doesnt necessarily mean that remittances cause investment
- By sending the migrant away, this could have been the investment and the incentive to invest came first and then remittances came after as a result
How do households change their behaviour when they receive remittances?
- Households that have more remittances, reduce their labour supply and work on the farm less - do less hours
- Therefore, the increase in family income is less than the remittance flows
Challenges of remittance ownership
- Who owns any assets bought with remittances?
- Is it on behalf of the households or by the migrant who plans to come back
Why is it controversial for governments to be involved in remittance payments?
- The governments sometimes get involved so that remittances can be used productively
- Very dangerous route to go down
- This is a private flow between person to person - it just so happens that it is across a country border
- just helping move welfare from one person to another
Brain drain - more info
- Bright people in developing countries and they move - is that fair?
- Cost of education - but who paid and where?
- Loss of talent - selectivity
- Loss of externalities
- Impact of foreign students/migrants on the destination country
- Foreign students and education migrants have a significant positive effect in the US
Brain gains - more info
- Incentives for education at home - if you want to move to somewhere and they need a degree, you will work harder to get that degree and you may decide not to go - the possible option to migrate stimulates higher education
- Bright people are creating networks for developing countries
- Could be harmful but not necessarily so
- The so called beneficial brain drain
- Provision of education
- Formal (including funding?)
- Informal - on the job or societal
- Brain circulation