GRAPH (WIN PROB from POINT SPREAD)
This graph illustrates the results from the equation used to estimate the prior. On the y-axis we have the estimated probability that the team will win the game given the closing point spread, which is on the x-axis.
Basically, I'm using this to tell us the probability of a team winning a game based on what the closing point spread was. For example if we have a team that is favored by three points (-3), we can see that the probability that they win the game is almost exactly 0.6 or a 60% chance.