Thesis Proposal (set 4: lit1)

In the previous literature I read that focused on fourth down decision-making in the NFL, all of the researchers came to the same conclusion: that coaches make suboptimal decisions by acting too conservatively and opting to kick on fourth down more often than they should.

They speculated that coaches could be profit-maximizing rather than win-maximizing, or that they might just be systematically imperfect maximizers, or that they might prefer to lose as a result of playing it safe rather than lose from the result of taking a gamble.

The problem was that none of them were able to figure out why they were making suboptimal decisions. Instead, the researchers had to make inferences from the contexts they analyzed rather than being able to directly test for specific causes.

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