Decision Making and the Individual Level of Analysis

  1. Individuals Who Matter
  2. True/False: Liberals are particularly adamant that individuals do matter. If false, why?
  3. What general belief about individuals and their personal characteristics does this speculation reflect?
    That individuals and their personal characteristics do make a difference in foreign policy, and hence in international relations.
  4. True/False: For realists, individuals are of little importance. If false, why?
  5. What realist assumption does this position come from?
    That of the state as a unitary actor.
  6. An inididuals action's affect the course of events when at least one of several factors is present; When political insitutions are _______, _______, in _______, or ______.
    unstable; young;  crisis; collapsed
  7. These specifics of a situation determine the extent to which individuals matter; When the issue is _______ rather than ________, when the isue is not ______, or when the situation is ________ and information is ________.
    peripheral; central; routine; ambiguous; unclear
  8. True/False:  In democracies, due to a high level of insitutional constraint, individual characteristics do not matter. If false, why?
    False. Even in democracies, personality characteristics matter.
  9. Why do personality characteristics affect the leadership of dictators more than that of democratic leaders?
    Because of the absence of effective institutional checks.
  10. Decision-making theories
  11. Why did political scientists turn to psychology?
    Because policy-makers do not perceive the world accurately.
  12. What is the anti-psychology attitude?
    The belief that what is in people's head is ultimately unknowable.
  13. When politicians turn to psychology, what political theorist are they in disagreement with? Why?
    Morgenthau, because he believed that politics should only concern politics.
  14. Realists take issue with decision-making level assumption
  15. Realists believe that decision-makers perceive the world ________, and that __________ are random accidents.
    accurately; misperceptions
  16. Unless there is a divergence from ________, we do not need psychology.
  17. The decision-making response to realists was that international relations specialists erred in ________ that the world can be perceived accurately;
  18. and that misrepresentations of reality are _____ _______, but are part of _________ ________.
    not random, human psychology
  19. Use of Psychology
  20. Before 1957, what did psychology deal with?
    Clinical cases.
  21. Political scientists saw no value in this because they were unhappy with the over emphasis on the _________, human _______ was subject to political _______; thus, psychology was of little use to political scientists.
    irrational; behavior; scientists
  22. After 1957, psychology moved in the direction of dealing with _____ and ______, which had become built-in _______.
    rationality; irrationality; assumptions
  23. Who were looked at to study misperception?
    The most brilliant and talented people.
  24. What two things were integrated into psychology?
    Cognitive and affective.
  25. Use of psychology for analysts
  26. What two types of psychology emerged to aid political analysts?
    Social and cognitive psychology.
  27. Define cognitive.
    The process of awareness of thought and information processing.
  28. Define affective.
    The influence our emotions have on us; it is concerned with arousing feelings or emotions.
  29. The individual leve of analysis focuses on people who _____ _______;
    make decisions
  30. is interested in how indivudals ______ ________;
    reach decisions
  31. and it's scholars look at _____ of different ______.
    roles; leaders
  32. Assumptions of decision-making level
  33. IR is explained by the _______ of human beings
  34. What human factors are relevent to analysis? (4 factors)
    • Personal experience
    • Belief systems
    • Leadershp style
    • Interpersonal relationships
  35. Define belief systems.
    Perceptions that form a relatively integrated set of images.
  36. True/False: Belief perceptions are generally not changed. If false, why?
  37. Propositions of Perception/Misperception in International Relations
  38. These theories are needed when the perception of the world and of other people diverge from ______.
  39. Perception is reality. Explain this.
    We act upon the things we perceive; therefore, it is our reality.
  40. True/False: Robert Jervis said that differences are detected for reasons we can not understand. If false, why?
    False. They can be detected because perceptons influence policy-makers' decisions and influence outcomes in international politics.
  41. Jervis Thesis/Argument
  42. What does Jervis argue about the perception of decision makers?
    That they usually perceive the world inaccurately
  43. About misperception?
    It is not the exception, but the normal state of psychology.
  44. What does the Jervis thesis outline and define?
    Models and conditions that explain how misperceptions occur.
  45. In other words, it identifies their _______.
  46. Individuals accept what may _______ them, but reject what others tell them is ________.
    assure; wrong
  47. Here, what is the equivalent of power?
  48. Perceptions/Misperceptions Propositions
  49. Policies are _________ by statesmens' perceptions.
  50. Under what conditions do we resort to decision-making approaches?
    When variations in seeing the world do not exist
  51. When do we not need decision-making approaches?
    When there are no variations in seeing the world.
  52. The moral implications od decision-making analysis is ________ responsibility.
  53. What are the three main factors involved in perception?
    Beliefs, images, and intentions.
  54. ______ lead to _______, which create ________.
    Beliefs; images; institutions
  55. Perception involves a process of ______ in which actors develop understandings (________) about other actors and what the others will do in given circumstances (_______).
    inference; beliefs; intentions
  56. Jervis posits that gathering, analyzing, and evalutaing information as a process is entirely based on what?
    Previous experience and on already formed notions.
  57. Jervis points out that incoming information is grapsed on the context of what?
    Already established images.
  58. Assumptions by Cognitive Psychology
  59. True/False: People have no conscious experience of most of what happens in the human mind. If false, why?
  60. When individuals act, they are not in full control of their _______.
  61. When and how is information processing conducted in relation to conscious direction?
    Prior to and independentyl of conscious direction.
  62. What do leaders reflect when they perceive events?
    What they previously thought without analyzing decisions at hand.
  63. Does "process thinking" occur?
  64. What appears spontanteously in consciousness is the result of what?
    Past thinking.
  65. What one does is ______ thought already, in the past, and ______ processed in response to the current event or crisis.
    often; not
  66. Implications of decision-making approaches
  67. Actors tend to preceive what they ______; thus the continuity of ______, actions; thus decision-makers _______ policies.
    expect; ideas; actions; unchanged
  68. Decision-Making Propositions
  69. Scholars and decision makers are ____ _____ ______ by being too wedded to the established view, and _____ _____ to new information, as opposed to being _______ ______ to alter their theories.
    apt to err; too closed; too willing
  70. Safeguards against misperception: what may appear to be self-evident and unambiguous can be interpreted by the ___________ beliefs;
  71. If date are evidently simple, it is because you .....?
    determined their simplicity
  72. True/False: If something is consistent, then it is right. If false, why?
    False. Be aware of seeing too much consistency.
  73. Cognitive Consistency
  74. How, as some psychologists argue, do people unconsciously try to simplfy decisions?
    By seeking cognitive consistency.
  75. What is cognitive consistency?
    People seeing what they expect to see and changing theur perception of facts to fit their pre-existing theories or beliefs.
  76. What does acting on pre-existing beliefs lead to?
    A cost.
  77. What can excessive attempts to maintain cognitive consistency lead to?
    Serious miscalculations.
  78. One should be aware of ______ and ______ consistency.
    rational; irrational
  79. What is an evoked set?
    Focusing on details in the present that were noticed in the past which may cause the ignoring of details that may be important.
  80. Define mirror images.
    When one considers one's own actions good, moral, and just, and considers those of the enemy to be automatically evil, immoral, or unjust.
  81. What do mirror images often cause?
  82. Cognitive Dissonance
  83. Who was cognitive dissonance developed by?
    Leon Festinger.
  84. What is cognition?
    A piece of knowledge.
  85. When are two cognitions consonat?
    If one cognition follows, or fits with, the other.
  86. It is psychologically uncomfortable to hold _________ cognitions.
  87. Define cognitive dissonance.
    Inconsistency between deeply held beliefs and incoming information.
  88. Cognitive dissonance is also ______ distorting the facts.
  89. A person tries to _____ dissonance while avoiding informaton  and situations that will likely make it worse.
  90. What is a person doing if they "adopt" policy?
    They are justiying their actions and attempting to minimize the clash of beliefs  by finding new reasons or rearranging their beliefs so as to support original actions.
  91. What does this lead to an actor doing?
    To holding more strongly to his policy, rather than "learn".
  92. True/False: Cognitive dissonance can support continuing a policy, even in light of evidence that should induce a policy change.
  93. When is this tendency reinforced?
    If there is a need to justify high costs related to the policy.
  94. What does this cause one to do when it comes to one's favor of the policy?
    It causes one to to hold a stronger view in favor of the policy?
  95. What is anti-learning?
    Opposing or countering learning.
  96. True/False: Cognitive dissonance stems from the nature of the human organism. If false, why?
    False. It is unknown whether it comes from the nature of the human organism or the socialization process.
  97. Festinger held true that humans have a deep abiding need in their psyche to be consistent in their _____ and _______.
    attitudes; behaviors
  98. Attribution theory
  99. Define attribution.
    Applying internal traits to another person.
  100. True/False: Human beings can explain anything.
  101. What is attribtion theory related to? (5 things)
    • Motivation
    • Arousal
    • Attention
    • Anxiety
    • Feedback/reinforcement
  102. An example of this would be attributing success to ______, and failure to _______.
    yourself; others
  103. How do people attempt to understand the behavior of others?
    By attributing feelings, beliefs, and intentions to them.
  104. In what manner is the assigment of causes determined?
    A systematic manner.
  105. An important assumpttion of the attribution theory is that people will interpret ther environment in such a way as to maintain a positive _________-_____.
  106. This reinforces certain thinking, causing you to repeat certain ________.
  107. Attributing someone treating you rudely as being a jerk would be _______ attribution, while attributing them as having a bad day would be _______ attribution.
    internal; external
  108. Why attributions are needed
  109. The consequences of making inferences is that they give ______ and _________, and leads to _________ and expectations of (same answer).
    order; predictability; behavior
  110. When do attributional biases occur?
  111. When do attributional biases occur for leaders?
    When leaders must infer or guess the motivations of others.
  112. What is a mental state understood to broadly include?
    Character traits.
  113. What may be most important for foreign policy?
    The basic attribution error.
  114. What is the basic attribution theory?
    A tendency to explain the adversary's behavior in terms of his characteristics rather than in terms of the context or situation.
  115. External vs. Internal Attribution
  116. What does external assign casuality to?
    An outside agent.
  117. When is an external attribution made?
    When the outcome is failure.
  118. What does internal assign casuality to?
    Factors within the person.
  119. When is an internal attribution made?
    When the outcome is success.
  120. What are the fundamental attribution errors?
  121. One's own bad behavior is attributed to ________ variables, while another's bad behavior is attributed to _______ variables.
    situational; dispositional
  122. Group Think
  123. When does group think occur?
    Group think occcurs when a group needs to make a decision in a hurry.
  124. What is group think?
    Peer pressure will compel other members to go along with a decision and ignore outside evidence that it is a bad decision.
  125. Main Symptoms of Group Think
  126. Illusion of Invulnerability
    Members ignore obvious danger.
  127. Collective Rationalization
    Expaling away a warning contrary to group thinking
  128. Illusion of Morality
    Members believe their decisions are morally correct.
  129. Pressure for _________
  130. Self-_________
  131. Illusion of Unanimity
  132. How to avoid Group Think
  133. Groups should be made aware of the ________ and _______ of group think.
    causes; consequences
  134. Leader should be _____ when assigning a decision-making task to a group.
  135. Leader should give high priority to airing _____ and ______.
    objections; doubts
  136. Groups should always consider _________ alternatives.
  137. It is sometimes useful to _______ the group into _______ ________ ____________.
    divide; two separate bodies
  138. Tentative decisions should not be discussed in the decision-making process, but with....?
    trusted colleagues
  139. The organization should routinely follow the administrative practice of establishing several independent decision-making groups to work on the same criticial issue or policy.
Card Set
Decision Making and the Individual Level of Analysis
The Individual