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1. Argument
Group of statements used to support the conclusion
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3. Arguments based on multiple premises
- 1. Eliminate irrelevant premises
- 2. Need more support � reevaluate remaining premises
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4. Importance of considering alternative explanations
more than one way of knowing something, comparing, promotes open mindedness
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7. Argument by analogy
Can be thought as an argument from the particular to particular. It may use a particular truth in a premise to argue towards a similar particular truth in the conclusion
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8. Two basic types of arguments
- 1. Probability
- 2. If premise is true, conclusion is true
- If premise is false, conclusion is false
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9. Two ways that persuasive communication can change attitudes
- Central route to persuasion: relies on the message
- Peripheral route to persuasion: not based on arguments or the message content
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10. Samples not representative of the population
law of large numbersstudy is invalid
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11. Chained, or linked, structures in an argument
Isolate the problem, identify the cause, speak from authority, speak from logic
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12. Basic structure of a persuasive argument
- This because of that
- � This=conclusions
- � That=relevant premises
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13. Regression toward the mean
- � If an extreme event happens, the next event won't be as extreme.
- � Average return
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14. Causal oversimplification
Goes beyond making complex ideas easier to grasp by twisting and distorting the ideas.
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15. Effectiveness of a persuasive message
Credibility, expertise, physically attractive
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16. Fallacy of hasty generalizations
Conclusion with small sample
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17. Common problems with survey questions
- 1. Wording
- 2. Order
- 3. No middle ground
- 1. Choice restricted
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18. Inductive arguments
Conclusion is made before the search for information
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19. Deductive arguments
Search for information results to a conclusion
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20. Difference between an argument and an opinion
- � Argument: premise, evidence, connection, conclusion
- � Opinion: simple assertion or preference
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21. Importance of identifying conclusions
- Conclsion is the main poit of an agrument and what people want you to accept.
- Acceptance f argument or claim
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22. Purpose of correlation research
To look for relationships between variables. Causation more about cause and effect
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23. Target group
The whole collection of individuals under study (population)
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24. Relevant property
A property or characteristic that is of interest in the target group (interest characteristics)
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25. External validity
Generalized inferences in scientific studies
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26. Tendency to seek information that agrees with our ideas
Confirmation bias
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27. Availability heuristic
Events that easily come to mind
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28. Entrapment
Invest time, money, and effort to keep going
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29. Biases when assessing risk
- 1. Voluntary
- 2. Natural
- 3. Control
- 4. Memorable
- 5. Observable
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30. Cognitive economy
Combined simplicity and relevance of a categorization scheme or representation
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31. Tendency to believe that pleasant events are more likely to occur than unpleasant events
Wishful thinking
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32. Mere exposure effect
People tend to develop a preference because they are familiar with them
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33. Fallacy of appeal to tradition
It's been known for a long time so it must be correct
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34. Anchor and critical thinking
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35. Error in judgment of overestimating the probability of one rare event followed by another rare event
Post Hoc
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36. Genetic fallacy
- Origin source
- "Since someone said so, it's true"
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37. Positive correlation
- +0.1 and +0.1
- -0.1 and -0.1
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38. Negative correlation
+0.1 and -0.1
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39. Pitfall of manner or style
Appearance and presentation ability is not as important as the evidence
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40. Either or fallacy
- The expectation that the only reasonable view of any issue will be total affirmation or total rejection
- � Is or isn't
- � For or against
- � No middle ground
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41. Pitfall of overlooking regression effects
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42. Fallacy of begging the question
Arguing in a circle
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43. Pitfall of focusing only on successes
Does not focus on all numbers and failures too
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44. Ad hominem fallacy
Attack on persons character, knowledge
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45. Post hoc fallacy
One thing cause the other
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46. Objective probability vs. subjective probability
- � Objective: mathematical
- � Subjective: based on someone's guess
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47. Gambler�s Fallacy
- Belief that repeated behavior of a random process will go in the opposite direction in the future
- � Ex: Dice has memory and will correct itself
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48. Regression toward the mean
- � If an extreme event happens, the next event won't be as extreme.
- � Average return
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49. Biases people demonstrate when assessing risk
- 1. Voluntary
- 2. Natural
- 3. Control
- 4. Memorable
- 5. Observable
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50. Cumulative probability
Probability that the value of a random variable falls within a specific range
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